The excellent fall, upstarts rise, and nothing is guaranteed.
Comscore published their periodic post of positioning in the middle of movable platform providers (tell me when you get sick of my constant alliteration... It won't stop me, but I do like the feedback). Of interest are instances where major players are advancing, retreating, or showing signs of stagnation. In Comscore's newest totable techno tout sheet we see:
Rim: 42.1% rising slowly (+1.3)
Apple: 25.4% stagnant (-0.1)
Microsoft: 15.1% falling fast (-4.0)
Google: 9.0% and rising fast (+5.2)
Palm: 5.4% and sinking (-1.8)
Most excellent and yet most predictable is Microsoft's plummeting while everybody else is either growing or staying steady. Microsoft's movable operating ideas has been derided, insulted, defamed and dismissed by many, for sound reasons. Unlike competing platforms, one routinely needs to buy a new handset whenever Microsoft releases a new Os (I say this with my tongue buried deeply into my cheek given that I carried a Windows movable 4 phone for seven years, much to the chagrin of my carrier). A friend of mine who works for Microsoft complains he has to reboot his smartphone hourly. Rumors have it that Windows movable 7 will fix all that... Just the way Vista fixed Xp protection issues and with the same level migration path ready from Xp to Windows 7 desktop.
Google's rise up the ranks is also predictable given market dynamics. A clear sector of every technology market wants portability, not wishing to be tied to any vendor. With Microsoft unable to furnish stability, features or upgrades, with Rim being perfectly possession and with Apple... Well, being Apple and iPhones being the town of a walled orchad that rivals Eden... The Android Os was an clear selection for free range geeks. Given that Android 2.x is well crafted, that Google added some exquisite back-end features, that Htc seems to adore the Os, and that Verizon promoted Droids to death, Google's rising fortunes are to be expected. My prediction is that they will continue this pace for a least a few more years, possibly to a market dominance point.
Most provocative from a market dynamics perspective are Rim and Apple. Being the big dog and specializing in general in email junkie codependence, Rim has less growth occasion than the other vendors. Yes, they remain competitive, but the core of their market benefit - being perpetually plugged into email pipelines - is not well protected. All smartphones can do email, and habitancy who do not need spam pushed down into their handsets at all hours do not need Crackberrys. Thus, the market share upside for Rim is capped given their current whole goods strategy.
Apple, however, is oddly immobile. For all the iHype, iPhones are now stuck. A unique and perverse set of market soldiery are at play, conspiring to keep iPhones at their current position. First, the anti-lock-in crowd wouldn't own an iPhone even if Steve Jobs was included as a toy prize (if his personal fortune was part of the deal, there might be room for negotiation). As other vendors furnish similar or even excellent features, iPhone cachet will fade. Take the Nokia 5800 Navigator for example, which is arguably a great utilitarian handset for a fraction of the price. Unless you are an app addict, the iPhone offers no stellar competing advantage. Finally, the financials of iPhones, and most higher-end handsets, are driving the unlocked market, which is oddly where Android is well positioned. It is no wonder that Apple is slightly declining in market share and will stay sluggish until they open over all major carriers.
Let's not bother discussing Palm... It is too painful.
Since we do discuss strategy at Marketing Memos, what we are witnessing here are some coarse strategic marketing moves and mistakes by the various parties.
Trends: One trend in the smartphone market is toward unlocking handsets. It is an clear trend that will affect handset makers and carriers alike (get ready to abandon mandatory data plans At&T and Verizon - those days are numbered). When there is a trend you can either ride the trend, fight it, or pray that you vocalize your market share. Apple and Rim are fighting it, Google is riding it, and Microsoft has bigger problems. One point for Google.
Saturation: Though we are not their yet, the smart phone market (at least in North America) is rapidly saturating. Chasm ideas tell us that within a integrate of years, only late adopters and laggards will be left. Selling to slowpokes (all other things being equal) requires dropping prices or looking mass market plus-one features others overlooked. Again, Google is altering the scenery by basically giving away the Os, and having it developed with Open Source efficiencies. This starts the downward price spiral and makes retailing unlocked handsets even more practical. Two points for Google.
Faddism: All fads die, and if one doesn't, then it is not a fad (kinda like food and nookie - they never go out of style). Handsets furnish utility, be it playing games, watching videos or posting onto Facebook. I hear you can even make telephone calls with some handsets. Once all features desired by all major market segments are ready on all movable Oses, we will achieve a commodity state in handsets. There is now a horse race to see who can capture the greatest lasting mindshare of the most market segments. Apple has the fanboys, Rim has road warriors, Microsoft has lost, and Google own the technoids though their eyes are set upon the broad consumer market. Since Google will make their money tangently via advertising, since their app market will help to create the whole product, and since they are driving down the sell price of unlocked handsets, I would wager that Google will fast surpass Apple in total market share. Three points for Google.
Sure, there are some wildcards to play. Nokia bought Navteq and now bundles Gps software and maps on their phones, reducing you gizmo collection by one. For all the jokes, the newest Symbian Os works well, the tactile feedback screen it more usable by broader audience, and Ovi Maps is an provocative value add. Google requires you buy wireless data to use Gps. Nokia says you can ignore data because the maps are built in.
The marketing part is that markets change, and you must always beware of turn agents with different enterprise plans than you have. Apple, Rim and Microsoft want to make money on software and hardware. Google wants to make money by owning the experiences of everybody and feeding their advertising machine as a byproduct. This eliminates their software behalf motive and thus creates a direct threat to the three top competitors.
If you see a familiar but desperate looking face on a road corner giving away handsets, be sure to say hello to Balmer for me.
mobile Movement